[1]陈怀志.资源枯竭型城市多情景生态系统服务价值评估[J].江苏林业科技,2024,51(03):30-38.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7380.2024.03.006]
　Chen Huaizhi.Multi-scenario assessment of ecosystem service value in resource-exhausted city[J].Journal of Jiangsu Forestry Science &Technology,2024,51(03):30-38.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7380.2024.03.006]
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资源枯竭型城市多情景生态系统服务价值评估()
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《江苏林业科技》[ISSN:1001-7380/CN:32-1236/S]

卷:
第51卷
期数:
2024年03期
页码:
30-38
栏目:
技术与经验
出版日期:
2024-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Multi-scenario assessment of ecosystem service value in resource-exhausted city
文章编号:
1001-7380（2024）03-0030-09
作者:
陈怀志
南通大学商学院，江苏 南通 226019
Author(s):
Chen Huaizhi
School of Business, Nantong University, Nantong 226019，China
关键词:
生态系统服务价值;  多情景模拟;  资源枯竭型城市; 徐州市
Keywords:
Ecosystem service value;  Multi-scenario modelling;  Resource-exhausted city; Xuzhou City
分类号:
F301.24
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-7380.2024.03.006
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
以资源枯竭型城市徐州市为研究对象，基于5期土地利用数据，耦合MOP-PLUS模型预测2025年，2030年不同情景下的土地利用格局。基于土地利用预测数据，采用当量因子法量化徐州市生态系统服务价值（ESV）。结果表明：(1)2000—2020年间，总体ESV呈下降趋势，由633.23亿元下降至584.81亿元，但ESV下降幅度逐渐减缓，呈现较好的生态保护态势。(2)空间ESV上呈现高低值交织分布，ESV最优区主要分布在河流、湖泊等水域附近，低值ESV 集中在各区县中心，同时9项服务冷热点高度重叠，热点重叠区域主要在生态系统相对完整的山地丘陵和水域，冷点重叠区域主要在建成区。（3）生态系统服务在惯性情景（BAU）、经济优先情景（EP）、生态优先情景（ELP）和可持续发展情景（SDGs）4种情景下的价值从高到低依次为ELP>BAU>SDGs>EP。较EP、ELP情景，BAU情景下的未来ESV空间分布与SDGs情景最为相似，显示出在过去21 a间，徐州市采取了兼顾生态、经济的可持续发展政策。但城市建设趋于饱和，未来需要将建设用地面积限制在3 135.83 km2以内。(4)提出“两河、两湖、两横三纵、多节点”的生态修复与保护格局，可为未来城市合理规划提供参考。
Abstract:
Taking Xuzhou City, a resource-exhausted city, as the research object, the land use pattern under different scenario in 2025 and 2030 was predicted by coupling the MOP-PLUS model based on 5 periods of land use data. Based on the land use prediction data, the Equivalent Factor Method was used to quantify the ESV ecosystem service value of Xuzhou City.The results showed that (1) the decline of ESV in Xuzhou City gradually slowed down during the period of 2000—2030, presenting a better ecological protection trend. (2) The ESV of Xuzhou City featured a spatially intertwined distribution of high and low values, with a high degree of overlap of nine services. (3) During the past 21 years, in Xuzhou City a sustainable development policy has been adopted that takes into account both ecology and economy, and the nine services have developed in a highly coordinated manner. However, urban construction tends to be saturated, and in the future, it is necessary to keep the construction land area within 3 135.83 km2.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2024-03-31;修回日期：2024-04-10
作者简介：陈怀志（1999- ），男，江苏连云港人，硕士研究生。主要从事土地资源管理研究。E-mail：15895783987@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-07-30