[1]成迪芳,程 路,黄鹤楼*,等.宁波四明山樱花花期预报模型及检验[J].江苏林业科技,2021,48(01):11-15.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7380.2021.01.003]
　Cheng Difang,Cheng Lu,Huang Helou*,et al.Forecasting model and test of cherry blossom in Siming Mountain of Ningbo[J].Journal of Jiangsu Forestry Science &Technology,2021,48(01):11-15.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7380.2021.01.003]
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宁波四明山樱花花期预报模型及检验()
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《江苏林业科技》[ISSN:1001-7380/CN:32-1236/S]

卷:
第48卷
期数:
2021年01期
页码:
11-15
栏目:
试验研究
出版日期:
2021-03-05

文章信息/Info

Title:
Forecasting model and test of cherry blossom in Siming Mountain of Ningbo
文章编号:
1001-7380（2021）01-0011-05
作者:
成迪芳1; 程 路2; 黄鹤楼3*; 严春风4; 徐梁5
1.宁波市海曙区气象局，浙江 宁波 315000；
2.国家气象中心，北京 海淀 100000；
3.宁波市气象局，浙江 宁波 315012；
4.宁波市海曙区农业技术管理服务站，浙江 宁波 315000；
5.浙江省林业科学研究院，浙江 杭州 310023
Author(s):
Cheng Difang1;  Cheng Lu2;  Huang Helou3*;  Yan Chunfeng4;  Xu Liang5
1.Ningbo Haishu Meteorological Administration，Ningbo 315000,China;
2.National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100000,China;
3.Ningbo Meteorological Administration, Ningbo 315012,China;
4.Ningbo Haishu Agricultural Technical ManagementService Station, Ningbo 315000,China;
5.Zhejiang Academy of Forestry Sciences, Hangzhou 310023,China
关键词:
樱花; 物候模型; 预报; 宁波四明山
Keywords:
Cherry blossom;  Phenologic modle;  Prediction;  Siming Mountain;  Ningbo
分类号:
Q142.2；S685.99
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-7380.2021.01.003
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
该文基于自动气象站逐日平均气温及未来1—30 d智能网格预报数据，应用积温物候模型提取基本温、起算日和活动积温阈值等参数，研究樱花冬季休眠期与活动积温的关系，并建立花期预报模型，对2020年宁波四明山樱花始花期进行预测试验，结果表明：应用研究的花期预报模型预报樱花始花期提前7 d，中樱预测结果较实际观测值偏差3 d，预报准确率有待进一步提高；晚樱预测结果较实际观测值偏差1 d，可用于花期预报和服务。
Abstract:
Based on daily average temperature of automatic weather station and National Weather Forecast Database(NWFD) for the future 1—30 days,the accumulated temperature phenology model was applied by extracting the parameters such as the basic temperature,starting date and threshold value of the active accumulated temperature.The relationship between dormant period of oriental cherry in winter and active accumulated temperature was analyzed. Also, the forecasting model of flowering period was established. After the prediction experiment on the initial flowering period of cherry blossom in Ningbo Siming Mountain of in 2020, we found out that the cherry bloomed 7 d in advance through the flowering forecast model,the prediction result of Prunus × yedoensis blossom deviated 3 d from the actual observation value, showing forecast accuracy to be further improved while the prediction result of Cerasus serrulata blossom deviated only 1d from the actual observation value, which could be used for the prediction and service of flowering time.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2020-11-11;修回日期：2020-12-14
基金项目：浙江省气象科技计划项目（2019QN13）
作者简介：成迪芳（1985- ），女，浙江绍兴人，硕士，工程师。从事农业气象方面研究。E-mail:chengdifang@foxmail.com。
*通信作者：黄鹤楼（1965- ），男，江苏张家港人，正高级工程师。主要从事农业气象与应用气象研究。E-mail：nbqxt@l63.com。
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-03-25